Recently, I've been touching my nose unconsciously during my shows.
Therefore, many audience commented below and told me
Wang Sir, you are at least from the CCTV
It looks a bit indecent to touch your nose while doing a show
Can you control it?
Actually, I don't want to touch my nose either
Mostly because I have rhinitis.
I've had it for about seven or eight years.
It gets really bad in the autumn and winter.
I sneeze when the cold front is on the way
When there is no cold front, the house is dry
In autumn and winter, my nose itches a lot.
Every time when I record a program
there are always a few moments during the 20 minutes that my nose is so itchy
As the saying goes, you can tolerate the pain, but you can't tolerate the itch.
So sometimes I can't help rubbing my nose
Many people have told me to buy a nose flosser
wash my nose or take some medicine.
I'm also going to the hospital recently to see if I can get some medicine
If I can control it, I will stop touching my nose.
If I can't control it, please forgive me.
What topic are we talking about today?
We'll talk about China's dynamic zero-Covid policy
When will this perverse epidemic control measure end?
A year ago, many people thought that
China's epidemic control measures would soon be over
I said that this was impossible at that time
It would not end during the 20th National Congress or before next year's National People's Congress
There are two reasons for this
One factor is that, as we all know
This year's 20th National Congress, including next year's two sessions, is the year of the change of government
The Party will change General Secretary
The government will have to change Chairman
This one, in particular, is not the same as it used to be.
It's an exception, because Xi will be re-elected
and it breaks the rule that was set after the reform and opening up.
Each leader cannot be re-elected for more than two terms.
So it's a very big deal for him.
He wants to ascend to the throne, right? He wants to be forever in power.
So at this time
He would not take any risks with the management of society
If we were to open up now
Some people will go to the hospital after the opening.
If someone passes away because of the Covid19
then you will gather online
It's uncomfortable to light candles and so on, isn't it?
So they just follow the measure
You could die
Die of diabetes, or a child dies of fever
Or if you can't live anymore, you can jump off a building.
It doesn't matter, just die.
However, you can't die of Covid19
So I don't think it will be changed before the two sessions, that's a reason.
The second reason
In the past three years, There was a time when
China's epidemic prevention measures seemed to be quite good compared to those of the United States and Western countries
Because in America at that time, it was like a couple of thousand people were dying every day.
In Europe, too.
It seemed like a land swarming with disaster victims
But in China, on the one hand, there were not many deaths.
On the other hand, the economy and social life was not too affected.
It was about more than a year ago, before the emergence of the Omicron.
So at that time there was a feeling that China was the only one that was good.
You see, at that time, the little pink in the country
They were laughing at America and Europe all the time.
So this epidemic prevention, it isn't just a public health issue.
It somehow becomes a question of two competing paths
China's epidemic prevention measures have become a way to prove the confidence of the Chinese road
So it's not easy to give up, is it?
But now I'm going to make a revision.
What am I amending?
Even by next year's two sessions
This preventive measure will not end easily
It will probably last for a long time.
In my opinion, it will last for at least another year.
That means that it will not end until the spring of 2024.
Let's wait and see if I'm right.
What is the reason?
The reasons are mainly because some new events have happened recently.
These new events have changed our predictions a bit.
The main one is that the People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency have published three articles
As we all know
The article in the People's Daily says that we should have confidence and patience in the measures to prevent the epidemic.
This article by Xinhua News Agency wrote that this dynamic zero-Covid policy should be adhered to
Fighting a protracted war
This article from Xinhua News Agency is particularly noteworthy
You can read it
It is not a long article
But some of the colloquialisms in the article are in inverted commas
For example, "take a break", "breathe a sigh of relief".
If you often read these articles in the Chinese press
you will find that such articles usually have meaning.
What is it about?
It means that it is an article compiled from an important speech by a leader
That's the top decision-maker.
He maybe have spoken recently about the prevention and control situation of Covid19
He may say that we can't stop and relax, 90 percent is only half done.
we can not take a break and relax at the moment
We must continue to roll up our sleeves and work hard.
Something about carrying 200 pounds without changing shoulders
As a result, Xinhua News Agency wrote an article based on this speech
This kind of article is written skillfully
On the one hand, it makes people think that the article is written by the leader
On the other hand, when the leader reads the article
He feels that what he said is still in the article
So some of the spoken words are put in inverted commas
For example, breathe a sigh of relief.
For example, "take a break", such words are put in inverted commas
This is a unique feature of the articles written by the Xinhua News Agency and the People's Daily in China
So this is a very unique signal
It is that the top decision maker has recently made a speech on the future situation of Covid19
The core of this speech is to be patient
This problem will not end in a short time
Don't you all think that after the two sessions I will be able to make a decision to end it?
Don't think about it, you're dreaming
We must continue to take advantage of the system
This is a very important factor
Another factor is the interview with Liang Wannian on yesterday's News 1+1
Liang Wannian has a special status
He is the head of the expert group of the State Council on the prevention and control of the Covid19
In 2003, he was the head of the Beijing Municipal Health Bureau.
Before that, he was also a clinical officer
After that, he worked as an administrator
He was also the head of experts from the Central Government to assist Hong Kong to prevent and control the Covid 19 some time ago.
He is the closest person in the field of public health to the leadership.
So his speech and interview should have a special meaning
The programme "News 1+1"
The programme was founded when I was at CCTV.
So I am very familiar with this programme
Now we are not quite sure if Liang Wannian's interview with Bai Yansong was intentionally arranged
or whether News 1+1 contacted him to do it on its initiative
But it doesn't really matter, the key is what Liang Wannian said
Bai Yansong's questions were generally quite good yesterday
Because all the questions he asked were of concern to the common people
There were five main aspects
Firstly, the epidemic has been going on for three years and the people are suffering a lot.
Do you still want to mention patience for the long term? This is the first point
The second point is that people do not wear masks in stadiums of 80,000 people abroad
Why do we have to do a dynamic zero-Covid ?
Thirdly, the rate of disease caused by Omicron is getting weaker and weaker
Why do we still insist on this policy?
Fourthly, have we considered the cost, especially the economic cost?
Fifthly, everyone should work harder now to get you enthroned by next year's session
When the enthronement is over, we shout "Long Live".
Then you can let us return to normal life again, okay?
These are the five aspects
These five aspects are all of concern to the people
But I think the answer given by Liang Wannian is very meaningful
First of all, he said that this virus
In fact, the resistance of the people's bodies and the spread of the virus is not yet confronting each other
Therefore, public health interventions is needed
The disease rate of Omicron has dropped.
But the death rate is probably very high.
That means we has base of 1.4 billion people.
If you multiply that, it's a big deal.
So we have to insist on this measure.
Of course, I don't think that's a valid argument.
Why? It's a reasonable argument
But you should announce what your death rate is.
What is the death rate?
The survey conducted by Dr. Zhang Wenhong took the data from Shanghai as a sample
It showed that the mortality rate in the young population was zero
The rate of death among the elderly was roughly the same as the flu.
Isn't that a figure?
If it's only equivalent to the flu
Then what is the reason for your dynamic zero-Covid policy?
You can't just talk sense with no data.
Data is the basis for the government's scientific decisions
And then he said that although China's current drugs and vaccines are effective
it doesn't seem to create an immune barrier
China has done a great job with its epidemic prevention measures over the past
So it has created a global immunization depression
So there are risks if we open up at this time
It could lead to mass deaths and medical crashes.
It makes sense. But what we want to ask is whether there is any way to break the immune depression that has formed
If I were Bai Yansong, I would ask him on the spot
Is there a way to break the immune puddle?
If we were to get the Pfizer or Modena vaccine
Will this immune depression create an immune barrier?
If we could build an immune barrier
Why don't we import Pfizer and Modena vaccines?
I think he'd be dumb if we asked him that question.
Of course, I understand MR. Bai
On that CCTV platform
Sometimes, the most you can do is to ask questions that are of concern to the people.
It's not possible to ask more questions.
If you do ask, you might not have the chance to sit in that place next time
What is the reason? It's taboo
Was Liang Wannian there to answer the people's questions? Not really.
He was defending the legitimacy of the policy
He didn't really want to answer the people's questions
So you see, the CCTV interview cannot be pursued
If you do, it will be exposed.
Including the article in the People's Daily
"The People's Daily" article is, to put it bluntly, like what we used to say
telling lies by telling the truth
Why? There is a very important detail in the article
It says that the World Health Organization has warned
that in winter the Covid19 and the influenza epidemic could combine to increase mortality
So countries should not take it lightly
This statement gives the impression that the WHO supports China's epidemic prevention measures
They are standing with China
The US and the West are asking everyone to return to normal
Actually, it' s irresponsible and you are lying down
Is that true?
We checked the WHO website.
We found that the World Health Organization
had made two public comments on the new epidemic in the past period
Once was the speech delivered by Comrade Tan Desai on 22th September at the WHO Forum on the Covid19 Outbreak
The title of that forum was "The end of the epidemic is in sight".
That was one time, and the other was on 5th October
The World Health Organisation had a media briefing
This briefing was about their assessment of the Covid19 epidemic
It did say
My nose is itching again.
It did talk about the last two years
As governments around the world had taken stricter measures against the pandemic
These precautions were in fact similar to those for influenza
So influenza was no longer prevalent in many countries around the world
But now that many countries had returned to normal this year
So the flu would return this winter.
So the Covid19 combined with influenza
This would create a new situation and new features in this year's pandemic prevention measures
There' s no problem with what the WHO said
But there's more
It says but the death rate will not increase, the number of deaths will not increase
Because we have an effective vaccine to create a safety barrier for everyone
Is this in the People's Daily? No.
So the World Health Organization, whether it's the Tandusse speech
and this media briefing.
What was the final conclusion?
It called for governments to vaccinate their citizens with effective vaccines.
Is this conclusion in the article of the People's Daily? No.
That's why I say that their idea of propaganda
is to tell lies in a way that tells the truth, and that's the truth.
It only tells you part of the truth
It has a conclusion and then it looks for that argument
It cuts the arguments to fit its needs
and puts it here, and then it's an article
This is the logic of the People's Daily
It's also the logic of Liang Wannian
Personally, I think the issue is now very clear
From a public health perspective, I think Liang Wannian has a point
China does have an immune deficit
If we want to open up, we could not just "lie down"
We need to build an immune protection barrier for the 1.4 billion people in this immune depression
But he also said that China's Kexin vaccine can't do that
In fact it can't do it
He said that Western countries could retreat to the level of hospitals
But to prevent serious illness and death, we can only move forward in China
It's because our Chinese vaccines and drugs are not good enough
So the core of the problem now is why we don't import vaccines
In other words, if we want to solve this immune barrier problem
We must build up the immune barrier through effective vaccines
There are two ways
The first way is to market a Chinese-developed mRNA vaccine
The effect is as good as Pfizer and Modena
To establish an immune barrier after two doses for the whole population, this is one option
As we all know, China's Watson Biologicals' mRNA vaccine
has been in trials since last year
It's now approved for marketing in Indonesia, but not yet approved in China
I guess its effectiveness must be different from Pfizer and Modena
If not, it would have been on the market already, it's been a year.
The second way is that if the domestic vaccine doesn't work
Then you should import Pfizer's or Modena's
In the past, it was a struggle to trade the market for the technology
Modena didn't agree, and Pfizer had reservations.
So if you give up the so-called market for technology now
Pfizer and Modena can both supply vaccines to China.
If we go the second way
After the two sessions next year
We import vaccines from Pfizer and Modena.
If the whole population gets two doses
To form this immune barrier
Cover 90% of the population
The general estimate is that it will take 8-12 months
So my prediction is that
Even if they decide to give up domestic independent research and development from next year's two sessions
and give up the market for technology
if they just import vaccines from Pfizer and Modena
it will still take about a year
to build up the immune barrier.
If so
It will take at least until the spring of 2024 for China to open up completely
and life can return to normal
That's the logic of my prediction
To be honest, I feel quite heavy when doing this program
Because from my personal point of view
I have many family members and friends in China
Even if they are not family and friends, all 1.4 billion people are our compatriots
It's hard to see all the tragedies that people suffer every day due to blockades and quarantines
It's hard for me too
I also hope that such epidemic prevention measures will end as soon as possible
So I used to think that around the end of the two sessions
it would be ready for opening
But now it doesn't seem realistic
It may last a bit longer
But if you think about the common people
This string has been tight for too long
For those on the lower end of the social ladder
The past three years have been the hardest since the reform and opening up
Those who deliver can no longer do so, those who go to university can no longer go to university
Those workers in factories can no longer go to work
Including officials of government agencies
They have been working overtime every day
But there is no end in sight
This is the reality of today's society
There are many people who die of illness
There are also many people who can't persist and jump off the building to commit sui*cide
Just a few days ago, students from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics were transferred overnight.
Students from Lanzhou College of Arts and Sciences were locked up in the school and left to fend for themselves.
Many people have sent me materials and hope that I can do a show
In an era when no one is treated as a human being
The child of nature in the past is now just a social outcast
This is the common fate we all face
There is no difference
We often say that as summer goes and winter comes, harvesting in autumn and storing of grain in winter
After the winter comes the spring, that's the law of nature
But it' s not the same for social processes
The will of a single individual can influence the seasons of society for a considerable period of time
Is that why we say that after winter is spring?
Now it seems that after the winter there may be a harsher winter
I can only wish my domestic colleagues and my friends
Everyone may have to be prepared for a long term response to the epidemic
I've been in quarantine for six months since last year. When is it?
I've been in quarantine since March at Jiaotong University until now
I came back in the summer and I'm still in quarantine here
We've been in quarantine too. We are same.
I've been ......
I just came back, I just came back from quarantine
I know I know I understand
I can understand how you feel
I don't have any contact with him at all
I know I can understand that, but we didn't release him either
We've never been like you
Then why did you add the code
...... What's wrong with you?
Yes, yes, it's okay, it's okay
It's okay, take it easy, take it easy
How can I relax?
It's okay, even though you're quarantined here it doesn't matter
Anyway, the whole of Hangzhou is the same
If everyone's the same, we're all the same.
Why should I be the exception?
No, the whole of Hangzhou is the same
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